When performing an oilfield operation, decisions are often complex because of the large number and kinds of considerations to be taken into account, including the uncertainty of the risks and rewards that may only be discovered during the operation. Risk and reward analysis is an important part of the decision-making process for oil exploration and production for several reasons. First, risk and reward analysis provides a means for prioritizing the large number and kinds of decisions. Next, risk and reward analysis provides an approach for balancing value tradeoffs and different preferences of the stakeholders in the decision process. For example, a balance may be achieved between the conflicting goals of drilling as fast as possible, maintaining integrity of the formation, and ensuring on-site safety.
Current modeling of risks and rewards lacks accuracy and flexibility in the face of changing conditions. Specifically, unexpected high-risk events are addressed in an ad-hoc manner during the operation, and unexpected rewards associated with little risk are not pursued.
It should be understood, however, that the specific embodiments given in the drawings and detailed description thereto do not limit the disclosure. On the contrary, they provide the foundation for one of ordinary skill to discern the alternative forms, equivalents, and modifications that are encompassed together with one or more of the given embodiments in the scope of the appended claims.